MLB Top 50 Starting Pitchers For 2025: #50-41
Who is the best pitcher in baseball?
Introduction
Welcome to my Rankings of the Top 50 Starting Pitchers for the 2025 MLB Season!
In this article I will highlight my Top 50 Starters heading into next season, including a handful of honourable mentions (these will be added after the Top 50 is revealed). Each pitcher will have 2 graphics associated with them that includes information such as biographical data, 2024 MLB statistics, 2025 Steamer Projections, pitch metrics, and tjStuff+ Grades.
Let’s cover some important aspects of my ranking process. Although this is a subjective ranking, I utilized as much data I could. My process consisted of three major components:
Production
I considered how the pitcher has produced throughout their career, weighing the 2024 as the most indicative of their true talent. I focused on metrics such as strikeout rate, walk rate, FIP, GB%, and tjStuff+. If a pitcher has been productive throughout their career, there is a strong likelihood that they will continue to have success. Analysing metrics that have strong predictive power, such K-BB%, helped separate pitchers from each other.
Projection
Projections are extremely important for this task. We already know how a pitcher has produced throughout their career, but we are concerned with how they will produce next season. Projections give us a good baseline for structuring these rankings. I decided to use Steamer Projections (via Fangraphs) as my projection system thanks to its reliability and accessibility.
Risk vs Reward
Ranking pitchers feels like a fool’s errand given the randomness of injuries, including the uptick of Tommy John Surgeries in recent years. With that being said, I tried my best to consider injury risks and punished pitchers who have struggled to stay healthy throughout their career. Volume is paramount to production, and I tended to side with pitchers who had a higher likelihood for tossing more innings over those who may be more dominant on a per-inning basis if their production was similar. At a certain point, some pitchers present a ceiling so tantalizing that the risk of missed time is worth the reward.
Some more notes:
I only considered pitchers who are expected to play in the 2025 MLB Season and are (or have been) signed to an MLB contract in their career. This consideration really only bars Roki Sasaki, who would rank in the Top 20. His exclusion stemmed mostly from his lack of Steamer projection.
I laid out my reasoning for each pitcher. Please read through this article.
I am happy to discuss any pitcher on (or off) this list. Please be respectful.
These rankings are subjective!
Now with that out of the way, let’s get to the ranking!
50) Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider is one of my favourite pitchers. I was disappointed when I heard he was undergoing elbow surgery early in the 2024 season, but I coped by envisioning a grand return in 2025. Although it is unlikely he will return in April, a late-May return should line him up for a good chunk of innings. His ceiling is the #1 pitcher in baseball thanks to immaculate fastball and slider, but without the volume, he slots in at the back-end of the Top 50. Don’t forget that he has a new curveball!
49) Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman may seem like a peculiar inclusion on this list after his inconsistencies last season where his whiffs evaporated. He lost his edge after a shortened Spring Training got him off on the wrong foot, and his stuff decreased across the board. However, he should remain productive due to his command and volume, but his elite strikeout rates will likely not return. His splitter is still a strong offering and pitching in front of the Blue Jays elite defense doesn’t hurt.
48) Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo is the lowest ranking Seattle pitcher on this list, which both is a testament to their rotation depth and my pessimistic view of Castillo entering 2025. Castillo saw his fastball Whiff% tumble 6 points from 2023 as well as lose almost a tick of velocity. His secondaries suffered a similar fate, and his strikeout rate dipped 3% despite playing in T-Mobile for more than half his starts. He also allowed a lot of hard contact. I considered leaving Castillo off the list completely, but his strong command and ability to rack up innings in a pitcher friendly environment lines him up for a productive season.
47) Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin excelled following his trade to Baltimore, recording a 2.60 ERA across his final 55.1 Innings. Not much changed though, as his BB% remained strong and he saw a slight increase in strikeouts. His ability to effectively weave in 6 different pitches gives him plenty of options to attack batters, helping him garner an elite chase rate and limit damage. Entering 2025 he will be leaned on heavily in the shallow Orioles rotation where his excellent command and deep arsenal should flourish.
46) MacKenzie Gore
MacKenzie Gore had stretches in the 2024 season where he looked like an ace, but countered it almost completely by games where has had no clue where the ball was going. He ended the season with a formidable 3.90 ERA and 3.53 FIP across a career high 166.1 innings. The workload hampered his stuff down the stretch as his velocity dipped from 96.5 MPH to 95.5 MPH from the 1st Half to the 2nd Half. Now with a full offseason to rest and recover, Gore remains an interesting arm entering 2025. His fastball grades out extremely well, and his assortment of secondaries effectively generated whiffs last season (51.6 Whiff% on his changeup!). His bursts of excellence last season were hopefully a sneak peek at what is coming.
45) Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta was a popular NL Cy Young sleeper last season, and it was very justified. He wrapped up a strong 2023 season with an excellent strikeout rate and improved BB% which pitching a career high 165.2 innings. He got out to a hot start in 2024 as his arsenal was electric. Unfortunately, the good fortune slipped away as he struggled to limit home runs, and his stuff steadily declined throughout the season. He maintained elite whiff rates on each of his offerings, which should keep his strikeout rate well above average in 2025, but he allows too many hard-hit fly balls to maintain top level peripherals.
44) Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga had a 2024 to forget after a shoulder injury kept him out until July and in his first start back, he suffered a season ending calf strain. The Mets trusted in Senga’s health enough that he pitched a handful of playoff games, but his command was all over the place. He enters 2025 with questions around his innings volume, but when healthy he is a strikeout fiend. He wields a deep arsenal, headlined by his famous “ghost-fork”, and is one of the most exciting pitchers to watch. The Mets rotation deepened quickly this offseason, which may take the load off Senga by limiting his innings.
43) Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen’s extreme workload seemed to catch up to him in 2024 as he made 6 fewer starts from 2023 and saw his average IP/Start drop from 6.1 to 5.1. He was still effective in those starts but they were not as productive, especially with a declining BB%. I am optimistic that Gallen will continue to be an effective starter and his ability to attack the zone will return in 2025. However, without his workhorse ability, Gallen loses a lot of lustre.
42) Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi was dealt to Houston after an unlucky stretch in Toronto which saw his BABIP balloon. Following the trade, Houston reworked Kikuchi’s pitch usage. He started to lean on his 4-Seam and slider more while phasing out his curveball. His results improved, but his high home run rate remained. Now in Los Angeles, Kikuchi’s home run issues may be exacerbated due to his home park, which is never encouraging. Nonetheless, he projects to have a strong K-BB% and hopefully the Angels don’t revert his arsenal back.
41) Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty remains an unsigned Free Agent as we approach the 2nd week of January despite being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball during the 2024 season. He made significant adjustments to his breaking ball approach which skyrocketed his strikeout rate while taming the high walk rates that plagued his final seasons with the Cardinals. The biggest deterrent is his high home run that he has carried throughout his career. Depending on where he lands, his ranking could change for the better or for worse.
Check back tomorrow for #40-31
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