MLB Top 50 Starting Pitchers For 2025: #40-31
Who is the best pitcher in baseball?
Introduction
This article is a continuation of my Top 50 Starting Pitchers for 2025. Please refer to the first article for more information about my methodology.
Let’s continue the ranking!
40) Bailey Ober
Bailey Ober got off the wrong foot in 2024 following an astronomical collapse against the Royals but settled in smoothly, finishing the season 3.98 ERA and 3.82 FIP across 178.2 Innings. His wields great command and a very strong changeup (39.6 Whiff%) which is always important to success. He is held back by his lower velocity fastballs which don’t spark much excitement. He also has a home run problem, which lines him up for some ugly starts from time to time. His ability to limit runners is fantastic (1.00 WHIP in 2024) which gives him a comfortable spot in the Top 50.
39) Tanner Houck
Tanner Houck enjoyed a breakout 2024 season which saw him post a 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP across a career high 178.2 innings. It seemed like the volume caught up to him though as he struggled in the 2nd half while missing a couple of starts in September. His slider and splitter performed exceptionally well with his sinker returning average results. Pitching in Fenway will likely hurt his overall line, but Houck should remain productive on an up-and-coming Red Sox team.
38) Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo’s ability to pound the zone with his strong fastballs makes him a fascinating pitcher to watch. He makes tossing 70% fastballs as a starter look effortless and effectively misses barrels. There is so much to like about Woo’s profile, but he feels like a ticking time bomb entering 2025. He missed multiple starts last season due to a myriad of injuries, including recurring forearm tightness. His lack of strikeout upside and injury concerns makes me bearish, although I must admit he is an awesome pitcher. Hopefully he makes me look foolish with this ranking.
37) Jared Jones
Jared Jones was my sleeper pick for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2024, and he made me look like a genius from the get-go thanks to his blazing fastballs and whiff-inducing slider. It wasn’t long before MLB batters caught up to Jones and exploited his shallow arsenal, but his strikeout rate remained strong, and his command improvements seemed like the real deal. He is still very young, with 2025 being his age 23 season. His stuff is truly fascinating, and he is a few tweaks away from being frontline starter.
36) Spencer Schwellenbach
Spencer Schwellenbach made a quick ascent to MLB last season after a strong showing in the minors. His first several starts were encouraging as he displayed above average command and a solid strikeout rate, but was home run prone. His season quickly turned around in July and he didn’t look back after posting a 2.54 ERA and 3.04 FIP in his final 92.0 Innings. He effectively balanced his deep arsenal to readily handle opposing batters and he seldomly allowed walks. His stuff is intriguing, and his command makes him one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball.
35) Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo’s improbable stretch to an AL Cy Young Finalist was fascinating to witness as he tossed 9 different pitches, most of which to great effectiveness. He can spin the ball with the best of them, which will always make his breaking balls return plus value. His ranking feels disconnected from his success last season, but projections tend to agree. He should remain effective thanks to his limitless combination of pitches, elite volume, and stable command but lacks the high strikeout rates that the pitchers above him possess.
34) Justin Steele
Justin Steele’s consistency is unmatched. His 2024 season was productive, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.23 FIP across 134.2 IP. He is effectively a 2-pitch pitcher with his 4-Seam and Slider carrying most of the weight. I would expect his strikeout rate to hover around average without a true off-speed pitch, but it’s a safe bet that he will return a low-to-mid 3s ERA in Wrigley due to his ability to suppress damage.
33) Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga transitioned effortlessly to MLB in 2024. His high riding fastball and nasty splitter stumped batters and the rest of his arsenal helped fill in the gaps. The biggest hole in Imanaga’s profile is his tendency to allow fly balls, and it showed in the 2nd half last season as he allowed 15 HR causing his FIP to balloon to 4.28. His home run issues are a function of his approach, so you shouldn’t expect that to meaningfully improve in 2025, but his command and deep repertoire gives him a comfy floor.
32) Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola is going to give you a lot of innings with a respectable production, but consistency is not his strong suit. He had a bounce back season in 2024, posting a 3.57 ERA and 3.94 FIP across 199.1 IP, but his fastball effectiveness dipped, and he continued to allow a lot of hard contact. Nola’s profile does not excite me, but the volume is so bountiful that he will provide indispensable production to Philadelphia.
31) Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray consistently sits amongst the league leaders in FIP, and projections believe he will continue that trend in 2025. Despite the excellent 3.12 FIP in 2024, Gray struggled with home runs as he allowed a career high 21 with 15 coming on fastballs. His breaking balls were exceptional (as always), but the lack of effectiveness his fastballs exhibited makes me bearish on Gray entering next season.
Check back tomorrow for #30-21
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