Rule 5 Draft Preview - Pitchers
The happiest time of the year!
Introduction
The 2024 Rule 5 Draft is an exciting time for die-hard baseball fans as it presents an opportunity for your team to snatch promising unprotected prospects from their opponents.
The prospects that are eligible in the draft fall under these conditions:
Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if they are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster
AND
were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or
were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.
The 2025 Rule 5 Draft will be held on Wednesday, December 11th at 2:00 p.m. EST
With the technicalities out of the way, here is a spreadsheet I created which lists all eligible Rule 5 players. Using this spreadsheet and as much data and information I could gather, I highlighted Rule 5 eligible pitchers that I found intriguing.
Let’s get started!
Starting Pitchers
Ben Peoples - TB
Peoples is the first of two Rays prospects that have a good chance of being selected during the Rule 5 Draft. His results in his injury-shortened AA Season during 2024 were strong, posting a 3.42 ERA and 4.12 FIP across 55.1 innings. His arsenal is headlined by a plus-fastball, sitting 93-95 MP with solid ride from an over the top release. His secondaries were effective at limiting damage with his splitter returning elite whiffs rates.
His lack of innings may deter teams from selecting him, but his stuff should play well in a relief role where he can refine his command and work towards being a starter in 2026.
Edgar Portes - BAL
Portes split his season between the rotation and bullpen in Hi-A. His results were solid, highlighted by an elite K% and Whiff%, but command continued to be his biggest obstacle. He tosses a 4-Seam, slider, and changeup which all flash average to plus characteristics. His slider is his strongest offering, sitting in the low 80s with 2-plane movement which causes batters to swing right through it.
Portes stuff is encouraging, but his lack of command will likely deter teams as his future as a starter is unclear.
Dom Hamel - NYM
Hamel the most MLB ready pitcher on this list thanks to both his age and high minors experience. He had a rocky AAA season in 2024, posting a 6.79 ERA and 5.95 FIP across 124.2 innings. While the results weren’t great, his deeper arsenal could be an interesting project for a team to acquire. All of his pitches hover around average, with his changeup exhibiting strong swing and miss potential.
Hamel’s biggest drawback is his lacklustre command and inability to generate chases. He is built up to a starter’s workload and has excelled throughout his MiLB career that a team needing a SP may take a chance on him.
Ryan Webb - CLE
Webb is a soft throwing lefty who had a very strong MiLB season in 2024, posting a 2.80 ERA and 3.25 FIP across 141.1 innings. One of Webb’s strongest aspects is his ability to conceal the baseball during his delivery. This added deception helped his changeup return excellent results with a great 49.4 O-Swing% and 38.8 Whiff% in AAA. The biggest knock on him is his weak fastball which sits in the low 90s with poor shape.
Webb has the foundation to be a high volume backend starter for a team looking to fill out their rotation.
Eiberson Castellano - PHI
Castellano worked as a full-time starter in 2024, tossing 103.2 IP to the tune of 24.7 K-BB% and 3.40 FIP across Hi-A and AA. He wields a solid 3-pitch mix, highlighted by a mid-90s fastball with average iVB for his release and plus-flashing curveball. His changeup is a work in progress and should hopefully allow him to be effective against LHH. He cut his BB% by almost half this season and showed better feel for each of his offerings and consistently landed them for strikes.
Castellano isn’t a flashy pitcher, but his all-around average profile makes him an intriguing pitcher for a team needing to fill out their 26-man roster.
Alex Santos II - HOU
Santos missed most of the MiLB season with an injury, but made a grand return in the Arizona Fall League. He is a talented righty with raw, yet exciting, stuff and good arm-speed. His fastball grades out well thanks to its velocity and shape, but struggles to miss bats due to its steeper approach. His secondaries are whiff generating machines, mainly utilizing a cutter and slider combo. He rounds out his arsenal with a two-plane curveball and sinker.
His stuff would make him a very intriguing bullpen arm in 2025, with a potential return to starting if he makes improvements in the command department.
Zach Messinger - NYY
Messinger has the build and workload to be an innings eating 5th starter on a SP-shallow team. His fastball sits in the low 90s with decent shape, but mustered up poor results this season. He tosses a trio of secondaries in his slider, changeup and cutter. All three offerings flash plus characteristics and are effective at generating whiffs.
Similar to Ryan Webb, Messinger could be an effective back-of-the-rotation arm for a looking to round out their roster in 2025.
Yordanny Monegro - BOS
Monegro is one of the youngest Rule 5 eligible pitchers, having turned 22 in October. His 2024 season, although injury shorted, was very strong as he posted an absurd 36.9 Whiff% supplemented by very intriguing stuff. He tosses from an over-the-top release, which causes his pitches to have an uncomfortably steep approach. He has a duet of fastballs with a sinker and a 4-Seam that sit at 93-95 MPH. His slider is his strongest offering, and his plus-arm speed bodes well for strong changeup development.
Monegro is a raw talent with some of the best stuff available. Teams may pass on his given his age, but he could be an interesting stash-and-hold project for a rebuilding club.
Yujanyer Herrera - COL
Herrera was traded from the Brewers to the Rockies in the Nick Mears trade at the 2024 Trade Deadline. He is the youngest Rule 5 pitcher available, having just completed his age 20 season where he posted a 3.04 ERA and 2.79 FIP across 100.2 innings. He is a large framed righty with a smooth and repeatable delivery. He wields a 4-Seam and a sinker which sit at 91-95 MPH with below average shape. His slider and curveball are excellent at generating swing and miss, while his changeup is not as refined.
Herrera projects to be a innings eater thanks to his size and solid command. Fitting in an extremely young arm into an MLB roster may be difficult for some teams, however Herrera provides an extremely safe floor for a team that is willing to make space for him.
Relief Pitchers
Evan Reifert - TB
Reifert has the stuff to seamlessly slot into an MLB bullpen on opening day and excel. His slider is arguably the best pitch amongst all Rule 5 eligible pitchers thanks to its incredible depth for its mid-80s velocity. He has no trouble generating swing and miss with his slider, and he supports it with a plus sinker.
Reifert’s upside is capped due to a lack of command, but the stuff will likely make a team take a chance on him.
Travis Kuhn - SEA
Kuhn repeated his third consecutive season in AA, posting another yet strong campaign with a 3.33 ERA and 2.95 FIP in 54.0 innings. He tosses from a deceptively low slot which helps his mid-90s fastball play up due to its flat approach angle. He has a good feel for his cutter and slider, and they exhibit above average shape.
Kuhn is a crafty relief option that showed improved command and his unique approach should add entropy to a bullpen.
Jaydenn Estanista - PHI
Estanista’s fastball was one of the first things that stood out to me during my Rule 5 research. He tosses from an overhead release, which helps him get a ton of ride on his fastball. In Lo-A, he averaged 18.9” iVB with a 6.3’ release height, which resulted in his fastball grading out as a plus pitch. The biggest downside of the offering is its very steep VAA. His cutter/slider also flash plus and led him to an excellent 31.1 K% this season. He struggles to repeat his long arm action, which plays into his poor command grade and putrid BB%.
Estanista would be a riskier pick in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft, but would be an interesting option in the Minor League Phase if available.
RJ Petit - DET
Standing at 6’8” and 300 lbs, RJ Petit is anything but small. He had a strong 2024 MiLB season registering a 2.87 FIP across 58.2 IP in AA. His 4-Seam sits at 95-97 MPH with decent ride, but his higher slot causes it to come in on a suboptimal plane. He leans on his slider in all counts, and it is extremely effective at neutralizing hitters. It sits 84-86 MPH and averages ~4” of glove side movement with 0” iVB. His changeup flashes plus shape, but lacks a refined feel for the offering and misses his spots often. He rounds out his arsenal with a very intriguing sinker, sitting 94-96 MPH with 17” of arm-side run that is adept at missing bats.
Petit and is one of my favourite Rule 5 pitcher targets and his profile makes me confident that he could smoothly slot into a lower leverage bullpen role for a handful of teams.
Frankie Scalzo Jr. - CHC
Scalzo Jr. fits the mould of a Cubs pitcher with his cut fastball, but he unfortunately struggled to locate and limit damage on the offering this season. His bread and butter is his plus-plus sweeper which get tremendous sweep and depth at 82-84 MPH. He also throws a “death-ball” like slider which hovers in the mid-80s. Both his breaking balls are effective at inducing weak contact. He rounds out his arsenal with an unrefined changeup.
Scalzo has a duet of sliders that a savvy team could use as the foundation for an effective bullpen piece.
All data and videos used in this article are sourced from MLB, Baseball Savant, and Fangraphs.
Thank you for reading!
Follow me on Twitter: @TJStats
Follow me on BlueSky: @TJStats.bsky.social
Consider supporting me on Patreon: TJStats