A Breakout Pick for Each MLB Team

Yes, actual breakout candidates

Introduction

Breakouts occur in MLB every season. Whether it be a former top prospect finally breaking through or a 5-year veteran, these players are integral to the construction and success of a team.

One of my favourite follows on Twitter is NaeNaeTakes. Not only is Nae a fellow Blue Jays fan, he has a keen eye for talent. Each season he names a “MLB All Breakout Team”, which highlights unheralded players which he believes will take that next step. The best part about these lists is that he limits himself to a subset of players that are truly under the radar.

His main 2 limitations are:

1. No Current Top 100 Prospects (MLB Pipeline, Baseball America)

2. No Players with a 2+ WAR Season

I prefer this method of naming breakout candidates because constraining himself to a much smaller subset of players forces him to dig deeper into the data to find hidden gems. I was inspired by Nae’s work that I decided to name a breakout candidate for each MLB team.

The constraints I used were:

1. No Current Top 100 Prospects (MLB Pipeline)

2. No Players with a 2+ fWAR Season (Fangraphs)

3. At most 2:1 Pitcher to Batter Ratio

I decided to limit myself to just MLB Pipeline because it is public and accessible for all to read. I also used fWAR because it is my preferred WAR framework. The 2:1 Pitcher to Batter ratio was a limitation for me because I would have named 90% pitchers if I could.

For each team, I named one (1) breakout candidate and wrote a small blurb on each. Overall, my method of selection was mainly analytically driven, but I needed to balance playing time considerations. I focused on opportunity because it is impossible to breakout if you rarely play. Because of this, I prioritized players currently on the 26-Man roster. I did consider those on the 40-Man if I believed there was a simple path to playing time. In rare cases, I picked a player that was not on the 40-Man roster because I believe they will force their team’s hand.

Let’s get to the Breakout Candidates!

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Brandon Young - RHP

Key Stat: 0.273 xwOBACON Against in AAA

Brandon Young was recently added to Baltimore’s 40-Man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and for good reason. He was solid during the 2024 MiLB season, posting a great 3.14 FIP across 111.0 IP which he supported with a 5-pitch mix and above average command. His fastball was exceptional at generating whiffs and he neutralized damage overall. The Orioles rotation is shallow and, in my opinion, Young is the best option available if a spot opens up.

Boston Red Sox

Richard Fitts - RHP

Key Stat: 66.9 Strike% in AAA

Richard Fitts remains one of my favourite pitching prospects and he simply is not getting the same kind of love elsewhere! His calling card was always his excellent command, but his upside was limited due to a shallow arsenal and poor changeup. The Red Sox helped ease both those concerns by working with Fitts to develop a splitter that was extremely effective during his time in AAA. His path to the Red Sox rotation is heavily congested, but if he can squeak in following a trade or injury, I expect Fitts to be a formidable backend starter.

New York Yankees

Clayton Beeter - RHP

Key Stat: 35.7 K% in MiLB

The Yankees are well structured top-to-bottom that picking a breakout candidate was a tricky task. I opted to do with an enticing reliver in Clayton Beeter given that I think his stuff should play well out of the bullpen whether it be in short outings or in long relief. Beeter was excellent in every level he pitched at during 2024 thanks to his strong fastball and slider combo which eviscerated batters. He ran an elite 38.1 Whiff% and 0.263 xwOBACON in AAA and has the stuff to tackle MLB hitters.

Tampa Bay Rays

Jonathan Aranda - 1B/DH

Key Stat: 16.5 Barrel% in MLB

Jonathan Aranda climbed his way to the backend of multiple Top 100 lists prior to his graduation in 2022, but he hasn’t found consistency success in the Majors. A big component of that is his lack of playing time and his contact woes. After an extended look with the Rays last season in September, Aranda looked the part of a MLB-quality bat. His power was on full display with an elite 16.5 Barrel% and 48.5 HardHit% while he was making more contact than ever before. He is slotted into the Rays lineup as their primary DH and he has the tools necessary to produce at an above average clip.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Mason Montgomery

Toronto Blue Jays

Will Wagner - 2B/DH

Key Stat: 14.5 Whiff% in AAA

Will Wagner is a prototypical late bloomer. He graces prospect boards at the age of 26, where he finds himself sitting outside of the Blue Jays Top 10 despite being one of the most productive MiLB bats in recent seasons. Wagner doesn’t have the lustre of a top prospect, but his underlying metrics paint the picture of an effective utility option for the Blue Jays in 2025. His combination of contact and plate skills buoy his floor and he flashed solid power metrics across AAA and MLB last season. Projection systems tend to agree on his upside with Steamer projecting a 118 wRC+ in 2025.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Chase Meidroth - 3B

Key Stat: 18.7 BB% in AAA

Chase Meidroth was a smaller piece of the Garrett Crochet deal, but he has the tools to make a big impact as soon as this season. He has performed well at every stop in the minors while consistently being one of the younger players at each level. He was situated in AAA for all of 2024 where he posted a 132 wRC+ backed by elite contact skills and patience in tandem with a solid ability to lift the ball. He is not currently on the White Sox 40-Man roster, but he is ready for the next challenge which hopefully means he gets the call to the Majors early in 2025.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Davis Martin - RHP

Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantillo - LHP

Key Stat: 43.7 Whiff% on Changeup

Joey Cantillo looked to have a wide-open spot in the Guardians rotation heading into 2025, but a handful of signings put a damper on an Opening Day roster spot. Despite that, Cantillo is likely the #1 option if a spot opens up, and he has some very intriguing aspects of his profile that line him up for success. First, he boasts elite extension (7.4 ft) which he pairs with a high 3/4 slot (55°) to create a deceptive release point for hitters. He leverages his deception by tossing a plus changeup and curveball that shutdown batters in his short MLB stint last season. The lack of a rotation spot and his spotty command quiet down his upside, but he should rack up a ton of strikeouts when he gets his chance.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Juan Brito - SS

Detroit Tigers

Dillon Dingler - C

Key Stat: 12.6 Barrel% in AAA

Dillon Dingler is lined up to be the Tigers backup catcher with Jake Rogers at the helm. It will be tough to steal playing time from an elite defensive catcher, but Dingler showed that he was the tools to be an impact bat with solid defense during 2024. He ran an elite 139 wRC+ and 12.6 Barrel% across 301 PA in AAA while posting above average contact and chase rates. His MLB stint wasn’t as fruitful, but the power is real and he has a knack for lifting the ball.

Kansas City Royals

Kris Bubic - LHP

Key Stat: 33.8 Z-Whiff% on 4-Seam Fastball

You could argue that Kris Bubic broke out as a reliever during the 2024 season after he tossed 30.1 IP to the tune of a 1.95 FIP and 28.1 K-BB%, and I would have to agree. However, the Royals are planning to use Bubic in a SP role this season which gives him another opportunity to break out. He relied on a steady 3-pitch mix to shut down batters, with his fastball being one of the most dominant pitches in MLB. Bubic has mentioned that he is planning to add in a cutter, which will add yet another dimension to his dynamic arsenal. I am all in on Bubic this season!

Other Breakout Pick I like: Noah Cameron - LHP

Minnesota Twins

David Festa - RHP

Key Stat: 3.76 FIP in 64.1 IP

David Festa was a pitcher that I had my eyes on at the start of 2024 as a potential breakout candidate. His strikeout numbers throughout the minors were tantalizing, and he paired it with a decent BB% and electric stuff. His first go in the Majors was rough, allowing 4 HR in 10.0 IP before returning to AAA. He was later called up on July 24 to aid a hurting Twins rotation and he made sure to stick around. He posted a 3.81 ERA and 3.15 FIP across 54.1 IP and proved himself to be one of Minnesota’s best starters. His results were buoyed by a strong 3-pitch mix which makes me confident that he can win a rotation spot out of Spring and continue his strong production.

AL West

Athletics

Tyler Soderstrom - 1B

Key Stat: 14.6 Barrel% in MLB

It’s been 2 years since Soderstrom graced the front half of a Top 100 Prospect list, which lines him up as a post-hype breakout candidate for 2025. His MLB career to this point has been uneventful, amassing only 351 PA across 2 seasons with an 83 wRC+. Fortunately, his results were much better in 2024 and he displayed some very intriguing metrics which lay the foundation for a strong 2025 season. He absolutely hammers baseball thanks to his great bat speed, and while his contact rates are poor, they aren’t terrible. He will have plenty of run as the Athletics starting 1B in a sneakily proficient lineup.

Houston Astros

Forrest Whitley - RHP

Key Stat: 31.9 K% in AAA

You can’t really get anymore post-hype prospect than Forrest Whitley. The 2016 1st Round pick was ranked as highly as 7th on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospect list which gave him the title as #1 Pitching Prospect in baseball at the start of the 2019 season. Unfortunately, a myriad of injuries derailed Whitley’s development, so much so that he is likely a full time reliver for the remainder of his career. That shouldn’t stop Whitley from being productive given his wide array of pitches and great stuff.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Spencer Arrighetti - RHP

Los Angeles Angels

José Soriano - RHP

Key Stat: 3.80 FIP in 113.0 IP

Soriano has an ideal combination of blistering stuff and strong GB%. While his extreme velocity has yet to translate into strikeouts, he showed a much better feel for his arsenal in 2024. His sinker returned exceptional value with +16 RV according to Baseball Savant thanks to its ability to induce weak contact. His curveball sits in the mid 80s and is a plus-plus offering due to its massive two-plane movement. He has some holes in his profiles, most notably his 4-Seam which got crushed in 2024. Additionally, his command leaves his susceptible to starts where he struggles to limit walks. Some subtle arsenal usage tweaks and I believe Soriano can take off in 2025.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Ryan Zeferjahn - RHP

Seattle Mariners

Gregory Santos - RHP

Key Stat: 120 tjStuff+ Slider

Gregory Santos has bounced around a handful of teams throughout his pro career and now it looks like he found a home in Seattle. He had a mini-breakout in 2023 with the White Sox, but an injury shortened 2024 sent him back to square one as he ramps up for this upcoming season. His arsenal is highlighted by high 90s heat and an absolutely devastating slider which grades out as one of the best in baseball. The Mariners have a ton of bullpen depth, but watch for Santos to stand out amongst the crowd.

Texas Rangers

Jack Leiter - RHP

Key Stat: 33.3 K% in AAA

Jack Leiter was thrust into the spotlight after being selected 2nd overall, and hasn’t really had a break until now. His rookie season was riddled with inconsistency and a ton of home runs. He simply didn’t have the feel for his arsenal to be a reliable starter, but his wicked fastball and slider combo line him up for a relief role in Texas’ shallow bullpen. I’m sure the Rangers will try and utilize Leiter as a SP long term, but they need help now and Leiter’s tools should flourish in short spurts.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Nacho Alvarez Jr. - SS

Key Stat: .372 xwOBA in AAA

Alvarez Jr. is seemingly the heir to the SS throne in Atlanta, and his AAA results during 2024 supported his case. He doesn’t possess immense power, but he remained productive last season due to his ability to lift the ball. His approach at the plate is advanced for a 21-year-old and he grades out favourably defensively. If Arcia struggles out of the gate, watch out for Alvarez to get the call up and potentially carve out a frequent role in the Braves lineup.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Grant Holmes - RHP

Miami Marlins

Griffin Conine - 1B/DH

Key Stat: 114.9 MPH Max Exit Velicity

Griffin Conine finally got his chance in the Majors after terrorizing MiLB pitchers with his 80 Grade Raw power. He made a positive impact in his cup of coffee in 2024, posting a 114 wRC+ in PA while manning a corner OF spot. His contact skills are the biggest flaw of his profile, but he makes up for it with an explosive bat and a very aggressive approach. Conine will likely struggle against MLB pitching to start, but he will have a lot of time to adapt on a rebuilding Marlins team.

New York Mets

Clay Holmes - RHP

Key Stat: 66.3 GB% in career

Clay Holmes has already made his name as a reliver with the Yankees, but he is venturing into new waters with the Mets plan to utilize him as a starter. There is a lot to like about Holmes as a starter, with his most positive trait being his innate ability to induce weak contact. Holmes already utilizes seam-shifted wake (SSW) to toss a nasty sinker, so the developing a solid changeup seems right in line with his skillset. I expect Holmes to be a formidable mid-rotation starter with his volume being the limiting factor on his production this season.

Philadelphia Phillies

Moisés Chace - RHP

Key Stat: 37.1 K% in MiLB

Moisés Chace will have a tough time breaking through the Phillies deep rotation, but he has a leg up on other prospects thanks to his recent inclusion on the 40-Man roster. The other thing on Chace’s side is an electric fastball that carried him to an elite 37.1 K% in MiLB last season. He pairs it with a solid slider which gives him a strong foundation to produce in the Majors. It will likely take an injury to pave the way for Chace, and when he gets the chance, his fastball will ensure that he can tackle MLB batters.

Washington Nationals

DJ Herz - LHP

Key Stat: 4-Seam Fastball 26.1 Z-Whiff%

DJ Herz showed very encouraging strides in his strike throwing ability last season while missing bats at an elite rate in-zone with his fastball. He returned solid results in his rookie season without great production on his best pitches. Maintaining his improved BB% will be key to success in 2025, and if everything clicks, I expect him to return a boatload of strikeouts on an up-and-coming Nationals team.

I wrote mote about DJ Herz here.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Brandon Birdsell - RHP

Key Stat: 3.63 FIP in 135.2 IP in MiLB

Brandon Birdsell doesn’t have the most standout stuff, but his ability to hit his spots consistently gives him a very intriguing floor as a backend starter for the Cubs. It’s a crowded rotation in Chicago, but Birdsell is the most built-up option in AAA that he may get the call once a spot opens up. He is isn’t currently on the 40-Man roster, which may stall his call-up this season, but his talent should shine through.

Cincinnati Reds

Graham Ashcraft - RHP

Key Stat: 95.6 MPH Average Velocity Cutter

Graham Ashcraft finds himself displaced from the Reds rotation after a rough stretch where he struggled mightily against RHH. Now in the bullpen, Ashcraft should see a bump is his already elite velocity and have much more scientific usage moving forward. A heavy cutter/slider approach could be an effective weapon out of the Reds bullpen and help him neutralize batters. The woes against RHH need to clear up before he can take that next step, but a more sheltered role is the perfect situation for his stuff to flourish.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Zach Maxwell

Milwaukee Brewers

Tyler Black - 3B/DH

Key Stat: 14 HR and 20 SB in AAA

Tyler Black has excelled in his pro career despite limited power thanks to his great patience and innate ability to lift the ball. He won’t get hitting towering home runs, but he makes plenty of contact that his speed should make him a dynamic player. He doesn’t have defensive home so there is a concern about his playing time, although he can slot into a corner infield or outfield spot when the opportunity presents itself. The Brewers lineup isn’t particularly deep, and Black may get the first shot amongst their young bench.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Nick Mears - RHP

Pittsburgh Pirates

Nick Yorke - 2B/LF/RF

Key Stat: 50.2 HardHit% in AAA

Nick Yorke was surprisingly traded to the Pirates the midst of an excellent AAA season which saw him post a 127 wRC+ with strong contact rates. The most impressive aspect of his production was his ability to consistently hit the ball hard while displaying solid plate discipline. He has the defensive versatility that should allow him to slot into the Pirates lineup whenever he gets the call while his bat and speed should make him a key piece moving forward.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Braxton Ashcraft - RHP

St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle Leahy - RHP

Key Stat: 121 tjStuff+ Sweeper

Kyle Leahy is a sweeper demon that had an effective 2024 season, but struggled to strikeout batters. His strikeout issues stem from his slider living in the heart of the zone against RHH. He ran an extremely high 58.8 Zone% on the offering, and while it is encouraging to see him fill the strike zone with the offering, batters rarely missed when they swung. He will need a better approach against LHH and a more refined feel for his changeup should get him there. I’d expect better locations in 2025, which should bolster Leahy into a medium-to-high leverage role with the stuff to back it up.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Pavin Smith - 1B/DH

Key Stat: 17.3 O-Swing% in AAA

Pavin Smith in 2024 felt different. He posted the hardest hit batted ball of his career (112.1 MPH) and he was barrelling balls at an elite rate while rarely chasing. This production wasn’t just limited to his time in AAA; he did even better in his short MLB stint. Smith is in a strong side platoon DH role in Arizona and all his metrics project a breakout season. The results seem almost too perfect, but that’s baseball!

Colorado Rockies

Angel Chivilli - RHP

Key Stat: 55.9 Whiff% changeup

Angel Chivilli will start the 2025 season as one of the youngest pitchers in MLB while also navigating the toughest home park. Chivilli has an underwhelming sinker, but he more than makes up for it was a disgusting changeup and hard gyro-slider that were nearly untouchable last season. He commands his changeup exceptionally well as it lives in the bottom of the zone. It generates some really ugly swings and he isn’t afraid to throw to both handedness. Coors is typically unforgiving for pitchers, but Chivilli’s secondaries should give him a stable floor to build upon.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Ben Casparius - RHP

Key Stat: 113 tjStuff+ Slider and 106 tjStuff+ Curveball

Ben Casparius played a part in the Dodger World Series Championship in 2024 as he utilized his high spin breaking balls to limit opposing batters to just 1 ER in 6.1 innings. It was a very similar story for Casparius during the regular season as he effectively shut down batters across each level he pitched in. His bread and butter are his +3000 RPM slider and curveball which stumped batters with their drastic movement profiles. There isn’t much room for Casparius in the Dodgers rotation, but his profile paints the picture of a strong multi-inning reliever and occasional spot starter.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Landon Knack - RHP

San Diego Padres

Stephen Kolek - RHP

Key Stat: 3 Fastballs & Multiple Secondaries

Stephen Kolek is still in the running for the Padres’ rotation and I believe he has the best stuff of the remaining candidates (Adrian Morejon was robbed). There is a lot to like about Kolek’s profile, starting with his trio of fastballs that he commands well and a solid changeup. He phased out his sweeper in favour of tighter slider during the season. but neither returned strong results. Tweaking his slider will be key entering 2025, and if everything clicks, he should return a productive season for San Diego as either a SP or RP.

Other Breakout Pick I like: Francis Pena - RHP

San Francisco Giants

Jerar Encarnacion - RF/DH

Key Stat: 108.9 MPH 90th Percentile Exit Velocity

Jerar Encarnacion is one of the strongest players in baseball. He possesses plus-plus raw power and it was on full display in 2024 with a 115 Max EV and 108.9 90th% EV, which safely places him amongst the best in MLB. Unfortunately, Encarnacion has some pretty big flaws that prevent him from utilizing his power to its fullest. He is prone to whiffs, hits a lot of ground balls, and rarely pulls fly balls. These traits aren’t very encouraging, but the Giants DH role is up for grabs, and he has the power to be an impact bat. He brings the boom!

Other Breakout Pick I like: Landen Roupp - RHP

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